Goldman projects lower oil prices in 2026 as supply swells

Goldman Sachs forecasts lower oil prices in 2026 due to swelling global supply outpacing demand, projecting Brent crude to average $56 per barrel and WTI at $52, with a potential bottom of $54/$50 by year-end. This outlook anticipates a 2.3 million bpd surplus, driven by non-OPEC gains in U.S. shale (including Permian), Russia, and even Venezuela, pressuring prices despite steady demand growth. For Permian Basin blogs, this reinforces tensions from Trump's $50 target, permit surges, and natgas demand clashes, spotlighting midstream resilience like Oneok amid upstream squeeze.​

Forecast Breakdown

Goldman maintains Brent/WTI averages at $56/$52 for 2026, lower than current futures ($62/$58), as OECD inventories build without major OPEC cuts or disruptions. Prices may recover to $58/$54 in 2027 as non-OPEC supply slows, with long-term averages hitting $75/$71 by 2030-2035 after low investment cycles. Geopolitical risks and U.S. focus on cheap energy ahead of midterms cap upside, echoing 2025's 14-20% benchmark drops.​

Permian Basin Strain

Permian producers face pain below $55-65 break-evens for new wells, aligning with Goldman's sub-$56 path and Trump's $50 push via Venezuela—math that idles rigs despite 55% permit boom. Associated gas still floods markets (EIA at 109 Bcf/d), testing LNG/power burns but boosting midstream fee-based cash flows. Basin slowdowns loom, with cautious budgets capping output at 13.5M bpd amid maturing plays.​

Midstream Safe Haven

Oneok's Permian pivot shines here—570k bpd volumes, 5.8% yield, and Eiger expansions insulate against price crashes, handling natgas surges regardless. Energy Transfer expansions complement, thriving on volume over spot prices. Contrasts Venezuela's tanker/logistics woes, proving domestic infrastructure's edge.