Russia's oil and gas tax revenues seen rising in May, but still down year to date

Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues are expected to rise in May because higher oil prices tied to the Iran war are lifting export earnings, but they are still projected to stay below last year’s level for January-May. Reuters calculations put May revenue at about 650 billion rubles, versus 512.7 billion rubles in the same month of 2025, while total January-May proceeds are seen at just over 2.94 trillion rubles, down from 3.16 trillion a year earlier.

Why May should improve

The rebound is being driven by stronger crude prices, which increase the value of Russia’s oil exports even if volumes do not change much. Bloomberg also reported that March oil taxes had been cut nearly in half year over year before the Middle East conflict provided a fresh price boost.

Why the year is still weaker

Even with the May bump, Russia’s budget is still catching up from a weak start to the year. Lower crude prices earlier in 2026, discounts on Russian barrels, and a stronger ruble all hurt tax intake, leaving year-to-date revenues below 2025 levels.

Budget impact

That matters because oil and gas taxes remain a key source of federal revenue for Moscow. So the May increase is helpful, but it does not erase the earlier shortfall or solve the broader budget pressure.